Chinese GP, Sunday, 8am, ITV1, Free £10 bet here

The common consensus is that Lewis Hamilton is well on his way to spectacularly missing out on the Drivers Championship from a position of control for the second year running. Last year, he suffered his first Formula One retirement in China and many expect another Shanghai nightmare on Sunday. However, the folks at chickendinner have uncovered statistics that suggest the opposite may occur…

» Hamilton’s performances on tracks he won at last season - Canada, Hungary and Japan - have deteriorated but he has improved his performances at the three races where he missed out on a podium finish last year - Europe, Turkey and Belgium - which bodes well for him in China and Brazil:

(It should be noted that the two European races were held at different tracks - Nurburgring and Valencia.)

Even more impressively, Hamilton actually won in Belgium only to be demoted by the stewards, so he has improved notably in all three of his biggest flops last season that he has had the chance to rectify.

» Expect to see Kubica on the podium again though - he’s followed up his two previous second-placed finishes this season with a victory and a third-placed finish.

» Raikkonen is on a run of twelve races without a win. He won here last year but, Belgium aside, his never won a race in consecutive seasons. He has only finished on the podium the following year on four of thirteen occasions.

» Massa has never finished higher than third in China (last year) and he has never won a race in which he finished third in the previous year.

» Alonso has always finished inside the top four in Shanghai but has never won three consecutive non-European races.

» Which means that if the run of surprise victories (Vettel, Alonso, Alonso) ends, Hamilton is best placed to benefit. Should this happen, Massa would have to finish in the top four to prevent Hamilton winning the Drivers Championship with a race to spare.

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